Side projects about the public record of politics in Bosnia and Herzegovina. They take no position and recommend no one. Every claim carries its source.
Izbori 2026: analiza izbora
A plain-language guide to the general election of 4 October 2026, written for voters who do not follow politics. Enter your municipality and you get your ballots as cards, or search any of the 7,028 candidates by name. Every one of them has a page: how many personal votes they have won and where that placed them on their own list, what they have actually done, and what it took to win a seat in that constituency last time. Each claim carries its source.
The guide also projects the election. It takes the 2022 result, moves it by as much as the vote moved between the 2020 and 2024 local elections, and lets the Election Law hand out the seats ten thousand times: expected seats per list with a range, who gets in by name, which groupings add up to a majority, and odds for every one of the 7,028 candidates. The rules that turn votes into seats are written as code and replayed against 2018 and 2022, where they place all 231 seat-winning lists and all 518 mandates of each year exactly. The model itself is then run backwards on 2022 while being fed only what could be known before it, and every error that produced is published — including a correction that was tried and dropped because it made the result worse.
No source in Bosnia and Herzegovina publishes a person identifier, so a career spread across elections has to be reassembled, and the guide says out loud which candidacies it joined and on what grounds. It also carries the offices nobody is elected to on a ballot — ministers, delegates in the Houses of Peoples, entity prime ministers, and members of the Presidency between 2010 and 2018, whose two general elections survive in no readable source at all.
Built from the CIK candidate lists 2006 to 2026, roll-call votes of the Parliamentary Assembly of Bosnia and Herzegovina and the National Assembly of Republika Srpska, mandate history, biographies and asset filings published by Mashinerija under CC BY 4.0, offices held from Wikidata under CC0, council sessions from eCitizen.ba, and party programmes collected from media and party pages. The guide is in Bosnian, with a Cyrillic and Latin switch in the header.
Source code and data: github.com/misabegovic/izbori2026. How the numbers are made and what they cannot tell you: metoda. How far the projection was off when it was replayed on an election that had already happened: provjera modela.